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Bond market downturn reaches “The End of the Beginning” as traders realise...
Reality finally started to dawn in financial markets last Wednesday. Interest rates weren’t likely to tumble by Christmas, or even during 2024. Instead, traders finally began to realise they were...
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Companies must be bold and transform, as paradigm shifts reshape the business...
Major paradigm shifts are starting to impact businesses around the world, as the chart shows: Demand patterns are changing as the profitable middle-market of the BabyBoomer years disappears Advanced...
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Central banks start to lose control of interest rates, and housing markets...
US 10-year interest rates are the world’s benchmark “risk-free” market. And as the chart shows, their yield has risen from 3.25% on 4 June to peak at 4.88% on Friday. Prices move inversely to yield....
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Investors hope (again) for interest rate cuts and a ‘Santa Claus rally’
Central banks have created a make-believe world for the past 20 years. Stock prices always go up. And interest rates are always near zero. So it’s no surprise that today, most investors can’t quite...
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Demographics are destiny for the global economy, as central banks start to...
For the past 15 years, since the Global Financial Crisis, central banks have claimed they could generate demand and economic growth via stimulus. Some $73tn of spending later, it is finally becoming...
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Demographics are destiny: today’s ageing populations creating “replacement...
Stock markets used to be places where businesses went to raise money – to launch or to expand. But not today. They have, instead, often become a fast-moving casino.First, they allowed high-frequency...
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Rethinking, repositioning and restructuring are now essential for industry...
The CEOs of two major companies reported on consecutive days last week. Their messages couldn’t have been more different: First, Indorama CEO Aloke Lohia told ICIS on Monday: “[The company is]...
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Risks mount for US ethylene exports
Margins fall to record low in 2024 Northeast Asian integrated variable cost naphtha-based PE margin index Chemicals are the best leading indicator for the global economy. They are telling a very...
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Oil and financial markets start to wake up to geopolitical reality
US RECESSIONS AND THE OIL PRICE 1970 – 2024 The oil price has rallied 22% over the past four months, since it bottomed at $74/bbl. Slowly but surely, traders are being forced to realise that...
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US Treasury Secretaries change their minds on trade and inflation policies
CHINA PPI v EUROZONE, USA, UK CPI % change, 2021 – 2024 (to date) It’s not every day that a US Treasury Secretary admits they have been wrong on a major issue. But that’s what happened this month when...
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